According to a report by AON, a British-American professional services and consulting firm that provides data, analytics, and strategic consulting services, the losses incurred by Libya due to the floods that accompanied the storm “Daniel” in the east are around 4.3 billion dollars. The report also states that the confirmed losses worldwide due to natural disasters were the highest ever in the third quarter of 2023.

The heavy floods that Libya witnessed last September were the second deadliest natural disaster of 2023, causing financial losses worth 4.3 billion dollars. The storm destroyed thousands of buildings in Derna alone, resulting in more than four thousand deaths and over eight thousand missing people.

The unprecedented rainfall caused by storm “Daniel” led to massive flooding in Libya, but the catastrophic impact of the floods was compounded by the collapse of two dams in Wadi Derna, releasing approximately 24 million cubic meters of water. Both dams were built in the 1970s and suffered severe damage from a storm that hit the area in 1986. Despite allocating huge sums for their repair in 2012 and 2013, restoration work was not carried out.

According to data analysis, 2023 was the deadliest year for human losses caused by natural disasters since 2010, with 75,000 deaths recorded worldwide. The third quarter of that year saw a series of deadly natural disasters, including heavy floods in Libya due to storm “Daniel,” an earthquake that struck Morocco and killed three thousand people.

Global insurance losses due to natural disasters amounted to approximately $88 billion by the end of Q3 2023, an increase of 17% over the average annual loss for the twenty-first century. Although financial losses due to natural disasters fell on an annual basis to $295 billion from the annual average.

What do we know about the flooding?

Parts of eastern Libya have been hit by devastating flooding after Storm Daniel pounded the country’s Mediterranean coast. Confirmed death tolls given by officials so far have varied, but all are in the thousands, with thousands more on lists of the missing.

Apocalyptic footage of widespread damage has emerged from the port city of Derna, where officials estimate that as many as 20,000 people may have died:

The city with a population of 90,000 is bisected by the Wadi Derna, a seasonal river that flows from highlands to the south, and is normally protected from flooding by dams.

On Sunday night two dams collapsed, unleashing raging waters that swept away residential neighbourhoods on both banks of the river.

In the early hours of September 11, residents of Derna in north-east Libya woke to the sound of loud explosions. After more than a decade of conflict – initially between the Gaddafi regime and local factions, then among militias fighting for rule – they were used to the noise.

But this was different. This was the breaking of two dams upstream towards the Jebel Akhdar (the Green Mountain) overwhelmed by the rain surge from Storm Daniel.

A seven-metre wave thundered down Wadi Derna through the city, washing whole suburbs into the sea. Soon, thousands of people would be dead and tens of thousands missing.

But even as aid organisations and foreign medical services were trying to organise rescue and recovery operations, Elseddik Haftar – eldest son of the regional warlord General Khalifa Haftar – chose the moment to announce he was planning to stand as a candidate in the next presidential election.

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That moment is almost the perfect metaphor for the plight of Derna – and for Libya itself. A cataclysm of climate change, neglect and conflict, made worse by one family’s relentless quest for power.

It’s not that there hadn’t been ample warning of the dangers facing Derna. In November 2022, hydrologist Abdelwanees Ashoor of Omar Al-Mukhtar University in nearby Bayda published research that showed that the barriers needed urgent attention if they were to hold for much longer. As Derna’s deputy mayor, Ahmed Madroud, acknowledged after the flood hit: “The dams have not been maintained since 2002.”

Derna: a story of conflict and neglect

The reason for this stretches back to the authoritarian years of Muammar Gaddafi. From the time Gaddafi took power in 1969, dissident factions in eastern Libya, including Derna, chafed at his rule and his base among western tribes. Gaddafi responded by depriving the region of resources and investment.

The dictator’s demise brought no relief or stability for the east. In the factional struggle that ensued, two main competitors emerged: the Government of National Unity based in Tripoli, backed by the UN and led today by prime minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh.

In the west and south, meanwhile, Haftar built a power base in Benghazi and Tobruk from where his National Liberation Army held sway with the help of foreign allies such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and France. To lend a veneer of credibility, Haftar established a parliament in Tobruk with a government led by prime minister and career politician Osama Hamad, who owes his position to Haftar.

Record rainfall

The water was brought by Storm Daniel which hit Libya on Sunday.

The storm – a Mediterranean hurricane-like system known as a medicane – brought more than 400mm of rain to parts of the north-east coast within a 24-hour period.

That is an extraordinary deluge of water for a region which usually sees about 1.5mm throughout the whole of September.

Libya’s National Meteorological Centre says it is a new rainfall record.

Satellite data shows the extent of some of the rainfall across the region – although in many places the amount recorded on the ground was higher.

Residents of the city, who had been ordered by the local authorities to stay in their homes, reported hearing a loud blast before the city was engulfed in water.

“The dams would have held back the water initially, with their failure potentially releasing all the water in one go.

“The debris caught up in the floodwaters would have added to the destructive power,” says Prof Stephens.